EUR/USD – Top and Drop or Break From Typical Behavior?

The EUR/USD rally since last month is at risk of failing, in-line with how it has behaved since early 2018. Rallies have been unable to hold for more than a week or so once they became extended. If price can maintain around trend-line resistance, then a change in character could be underway.

However, there is a short-term technical pattern developing that threatens the advance. The head-and-shoulders formation on the 4-hr chart could be putting in a right shoulder if it continues to roll over. The pattern isn’t valid, or even a pattern, until it breaks the neckline of the formation. So while it looks like a good sequence it can’t be counted in the books yet.

An alternate pattern could develop (i.e. falling wedge) that would have bullish implications, or price may turn higher very soon and never solidify the right shoulder. With that in mind, it is important to be patient in waiting for the full sequence to play out before turning aggressively bearish.

Should we see price drop below the neckline around the 11180 mark, then a full reversal could be in order back under 10900 where there is major long-term trend-line runs up from 2000, and even further back if you reconstruct the Euro from its consistent prior to the single currency’s existence. If, however, the pattern fails to materialize and a rally develops beyond 11422, we could see a much larger run be put together as EUR/USD finally breaks character and makes good on extending a rally. In this case 11495 would be up next as resistance, followed by the 2008 trend-line up around 11700.

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